- International Borrowing and Aid
When domestic tax collection fails, the state’s primary resource becomes external financing.
- IMF and World Bank: Low-interest loans worth billions of dollars would be requested for such a massive catastrophe.
- International Bonds: The state would attempt to raise funds from global markets through instruments like “Disaster Bonds.” However, because the heart of the economy has stopped, the interest rates on these debts could be extremely high.
- Shifting the Burden to Other Regions
When Istanbul can no longer generate tax, the state will inevitably shift the weight to other provinces:
- Additional Taxes: New and heavy temporary taxes (similar to the “Special Communication Tax” introduced after the 1999 earthquake) would be implemented nationwide.
- Accelerating Anatolian Industry: The production capacity of cities like Konya, Kayseri, and Gaziantep would be pushed to its limits to close the revenue gap. However, the combined output of these cities does not yet equal one Istanbul.
- “Money Printing” and Inflationary Financing
If cash flow is completely blocked, the Central Bank might be forced to print money.
- While this provides a short-term fix (to pay workers or buy emergency supplies), it leads to hyperinflation. In short: money is found, but its purchasing power disappears.
- Insurance and Reinsurance Funds
The most “ready cash” available for Istanbul to heal itself is through insurance.
- DASK and Private Insurance: The rate of insured residences and workplaces is high in Istanbul. These systems ensure a flow of foreign currency into Turkey from global giants (reinsurance companies). This would be the largest source of “fresh cash” outside of taxes.
- “War Economy” Mode in Public Spending
The moment tax revenue stops, the state suspends all non-earthquake projects:
- Investments in highways, bridges, canal projects, or the defense industry are put on hold.
- The entire budget is redirected to “debris removal and reconstruction.” This means a disruption of services in the rest of the country (e.g., roads left unmaintained, no new schools built).
In Summary: “Can It Save Itself?”
In a situation where it cannot provide tax revenue, Istanbul cannot save itself alone. The wound would be so large that the money required to heal it exceeds the total accumulated wealth of the other 80 provinces combined.
This is why all current preparations—such as shifting industry to Anatolia and urban transformation—are actually efforts to “reduce damage” before the tax engine stops. The less the damage, the faster the tax gears can start turning again.
Don’t you think that having production and wealth concentrated so heavily in a single city is Turkey’s biggest risk factor?
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